GM, Ford to overtake Tesla in EV market share by 2025, study says

This year’s “Car Wars” study predicts that roughly 60 percent of new nameplates by the 2026 model year will either be EV or hybrid. Murphy said Thursday he expected EV sales to rise to at least 10 percent of the U.S. sales market by that time, although there’s room for greater growth.

Murphy said Tesla is not expanding its portfolio quickly enough to keep up with both incumbent automakers and new startups that are ramping up their own electric portfolios.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk “has had a vacuum for the last 10 years in which to operate where there hasn’t been much competition that’s come in,” Murphy said. “That vacuum is now being filled in a massive way over the next four years by very good product.”

Tesla’s upcoming Cybertruck has been delayed multiple times and is now scheduled to come out sometime next year, while plans for its next-generation Roadster have also been pushed back.

In the meantime, both Ford and GM executives have said they plan to challenge Tesla for the title of No. 1 EV-maker later this decade. Ford says it will build 2 million EVs globally by 2026, while GM says it will have more than 2 million units of EV capacity in North America and China combined through 2025.

Musk “didn’t move fast enough,” Murphy said. “He had tremendous hubris that [other automakers] would never catch him and would never be able to do what he’s doing, and they’re doing it.”

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