Estimates suggest that approximately 19 million individuals succumb to cardiovascular disease (CVD) annually worldwide, with five million of these fatalities occurring in China alone. Additionally, CVD contributes to over 390 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally.
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Cardiovascular
The ongoing rise in global temperatures, attributed to climate change, has resulted in an increase of 1.15°C above pre-industrial levels. Previous research has highlighted the adverse effects of climate change on overall mortality, with specific impacts on CVD-related deaths, varying by age, gender, and cause of death.
Heat exerts various effects on the cardiovascular system, including increased sweat production leading to salt and water loss, elevated cholesterol levels, and hemodynamic strain. Furthermore, heat-related to climate change can elevate the risk of atherosclerotic thrombosis, potentially increasing the incidence of strokes and heart attacks.
Study Overview:
The study aimed to forecast CVD mortality linked to climate change in China. Current temperatures were recorded at 161 disease surveillance points (DSPs), with projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
Twenty-two General Climate Models (GCMs) were utilized to project temperatures from 2010 to 2100, considering both human-induced and natural scenarios. Human-induced scenarios were determined by the disparity between combined and natural climate impacts.
Given the close relationship between economic and social factors and climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) devised integrated scenarios combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
Study Findings:
Annual mean temperatures at DSPs ranged from 12.6 to 28.4°C, coinciding with approximately 330,000 CVD deaths. Under natural conditions, no significant change in summer temperatures was projected. Conversely, under combined scenarios, summer temperatures rose by 5-6°C, with a corresponding increase in the fraction of CVD deaths related to heat.
Heat-related CVD mortality showed a J-shaped curve beyond a critical minimum temperature, with the most substantial increase observed in Southern and Eastern China. Vulnerable populations, including rural residents, individuals with lower education levels, stroke patients, females, older adults, and those residing in specific regions, were particularly susceptible to heat-related CVD mortality.
The study underscores the importance of addressing climate change and its impacts on vulnerable populations, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse health effects associated with rising temperatures.
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