Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud issued a stern warning, asserting that Somalia would “defend itself” against Ethiopia’s plan to establish a naval base in the autonomous region of Somaliland. The memorandum of understanding, signed on January 1, grants Ethiopia a lease on 20 km of Somaliland’s coastline, a move strongly contested by Somalia. Ethiopia proposed recognizing Somaliland in exchange for the naval base, heightening tensions in the Horn of Africa.
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Somalia
Mohamud, speaking from the heavily fortified presidential palace in Mogadishu, stated that if Ethiopia persists, Somalia will resist and refuse the arrangement. He emphasized that discussions with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed would only occur if Ethiopia renounces its intention to claim part of Somalia’s territory.
While not detailing specific actions, Mohamud underscored Somalia’s determination to defend itself if Ethiopia proceeds with its plans. The Horn of Africa has a history of conflicts, and the fear is that this deal could exacerbate regional instability.
Addressing concerns about the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia, Mohamud clarified that he had no plans to expel the nearly 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers involved in the African Union peacekeeping mission against al-Shabaab. Analysts and diplomats worry that withdrawing Ethiopian troops could further destabilize Somalia, where al-Shabaab attacks have been a persistent threat since 2006.
Somalia and Western countries, including the United States, argue that Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland has contributed to increased recruitment by al-Shabaab. Mohamud claimed that his government estimates indicated a significant surge in al-Shabaab recruits, numbering between 6,000 and 8,000 in January alone. However, analysts and diplomats interviewed by Reuters expressed skepticism, estimating the actual number of new recruits to be in the hundreds.
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